Notes from my terminal

The Shockwave Rider Revisited: Delphi and the Art of Fencing

Recently I was reminded of a brilliant science-fiction novel I read quite some years ago, "The Shockwave Rider" by John Brunner. You might have heard of the book because it predicted (back in the 1970s, mind you) some things that have become reality, like a world-wide data network, oddly enough called "the Web" or a network-based computer programme hunting and tracking down other programmes, called a "worm".

Another thing Brunner described was all over the news this week: the Pentagon wanted to introduce "future markets" as a means to predict terrorist attacks. Most people ranted about how tasteless the idea was or, (especially in Europe) invoking cheap anti-Americanism, dismissed it as another example of American stupidity (it comes from the Bush administration, so it must be dumb, right?). I found the idea fascinating. The very same idea is called "Delphi" in the Shockwave Rider. Brunner argues that we as a group or society are much smarter and thus more likely to make correct guesses about future events than individuals. Scientific research seems to back him.

Another thing I remembered was the game played in the book, Fencing. No, not the thing you do with swords, it's a board game. After a little bit of googleing, I found the rules to the game. It's a bit like Go with a twist. I remember a notice in the front matter of the novel where Brunner claimed copyright for the game. Rumor has it that he actually planned to turn it into a commercial shrink-wrapped game, but some smart-ass mathematician used game theory to prove that there actually is a perfect strategy for the game. I wouldn't understand the theory anyway, so I think I'll give the game a try this weekend.